Advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods in deciding whether and when to stop a clinical trial: an example of a neonatal cooling trial

Table 5 Summaries of posterior probabilities of the absolute risk difference of predischarge mortality

	RD posterior mean (95 % credible interval)		Futility monitoring Pr(RD > 0.01)^a		Safety monitoring Pr(RD < −0.05)^b
	Neutral	Enthusiastic	Neutral	Enthusiastic	Neutral	Enthusiastic
32.0 °C for 72 h	−0.02 (−0.08, 0.03)	−0.02 (−0.08, 0.04)	11 %	15 %	19 %	16 %
33.5 °C for 120 h	−0.03 (−0.09, 0.02)	−0.03 (−0.09, 0.03)	8 %	9 %	28 %	25 %
32.0 °C for 120 h	−0.06 (−0.15, 0.03)	−0.06 (−0.15, 0.03)	5 %	7 %	61 %	54 %

^aRD > 0.01 indicates 1 % or more reduced mortality
^bRD < −0.05 indicates a 5 % or more absolute increase in mortality
The three experimental groups are compared standard cooling (33.5 °C for 72 h) under a neutral and enthusiastic prior. Positive values of RD favor the experimental groups
Pr probability, RD risk difference

ISSN: 1745-6215