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Table 1 Interactions between baseline risk, treatment-related harm (Rx-harm) and competing risk (CR) when chemotherapy reduces breast cancer mortality by 15%.

From: Competing risk and heterogeneity of treatment effect in clinical trials

Risk of Breast CA Death

No Rx-harm or CR

Rx-harm (1.5% absolute rate) but no CR

Rx-harm & CR is:

   

Low (10%)

Moderate (25%)

High (50%)

(10-yr CA Mortality)

Absolute Risk Reduction/Number Needed to Treat

Low (10%)

.015/67

0/8

-.002/-667§

-.004/-267§

-.007/-133§

Moderate (25%)

.038/27

.023/44

.019/53

.013/76

.004/267

High (50%)

.075/13

.060/17

.053/19

.041/24

.022/44

  1. § The negative sign denotes instances in which chemotherapy does net harm, meaning that the statistics represent absolute risk increase and number need to harm.