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Table 4 Results for the ACCENT data for a treatment threshold (T) of 0.05.

From: Method for evaluating prediction models that apply the results of randomized trials to individual patients

Strategy Treat no patients, regardless of model Treat all patients, regardless of model Treat according to prediction model
    Prediction model recommends treatment Prediction model recommends no treatment Prediction model total
Number of patients 1397 1474 889 564 1453
Number of events 568 (40.66%) 472 (32.02%) 343 (38.6%) 139 (24.6%) 482 (33.2%)
Decrease in event rate   8.64%    7.49%
Number of treatments   1474 (100%)    889 (61.2%)
Net benefit   8.64% – 100% × 0.05 = 0.0364    7.5% – 61.2% × 0.05 = 0.0443
  1. The results in the first and second columns give the results from the treatment and control groups. The third column shows that there were 889 patients in the treatment group for whom the prediction model estimated a benefit of 5% or more and that 343 of these died. The fourth column shows that there were 564 patients in the control group of the randomized trial with predicted benefit of less than 5%, of whom 139 died. The final column shows the overall results for patients given an individualized prediction.