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Table 5 Net benefit for treating high-risk and all patients, varying the effectiveness and tolerability of intervention.

From: Selecting patients for randomized trials: a systematic approach based on risk group

Scenario

Relative Risk

NNTt

Sensitivity

Specificity

Net benefit (high-risk)

Net benefit (treat all)

Net benefit: high-risk – treat all

Effective intervention

0.50

100

40%

80%

0.00790

0.01500

-0.00710

Effective intervention, high sensitivity

0.50

100

95%

45%

0.01805

0.01500

0.00305

Highly tolerable intervention

0.75

500

40%

80%

0.00458

0.01050

-0.00592

Highly tolerable intervention, high sensitivity

0.75

500

95%

40%

0.01064

0.01050

0.00014

Adverse intervention

0.75

40

40%

80%

-0.00025

-0.01250

-

Adverse intervention, high specificity

0.75

40

30%

90%

0.00100

-0.01250

0.01350

The ideal intervention, high sensitivity and specificity

0.25

500

95%

90%

0.03534

0.03550

-0.00016

Questionable intervention, poor sensitivity and specificity

0.80

100

51%

51%

0.00019

0.00000

0.00019

  1. The event rate in the absence of intervention is 5% for all scenarios.