Table 3 Operating characteristics with interpretations
From: Interpreting a Bayesian phase II futility clinical trial
| Â | Data simulated under null hypothesis | Data simulated under alternative hypothesis |
|---|---|---|
Proportion successful trials | The probability of declaring a treatment futile, which is in fact not futile, is 9.2% | The probability of declaring a futile treatment futile is 80.5%. |
Probability of success in phase III trial | The probability of a treatment, for which we cannot rule out superiority, achieving a significant result in a larger phase III efficacy-based trial is 68.64%. | The probability of a treatment, for which we cannot rule out superiority, achieving a significant result in a larger phase III efficacy-based trial is 17.8%. |