True OUD prevalence (π) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | ||||
Samplea | Assumptions / Notes | Specificity | Sensitivityb | |||
1 | Documented OUD | • Assumes all individuals with documented OUD do in fact have true OUD (specificity = 1) • Sensitivity selected to be consistent with the observed proportion of patients with documented OUD based on Phase 1 data (0.5%) and the specific choice of the true prevalence (π) | 1 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.125 |
2 | All patients | By definition, sensitivity = 1 and specificity = 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
3a | High specificity | Selected to have slightly higher sensitivity than Sample 1 (1.2 times the value), at the cost of slightly reduced specificity | 0.95 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.15 |
3b | High sensitivity | • Sensitivity was selected based on a previously developed algorithmc to identify individuals with opioid abuse and addiction, among patients on long-term opioid therapy • We considered a lower specificity (0.5 vs 0.64c) given that our initial sample is the entire site population, not restricted to long-term opioid users | 0.5 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
3c | Equal sens./spec. | Selected to have lower sensitivity and higher specificity than Sample 3b | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |