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Table 4 Summaries of posterior probabilities of relative risk of predischarge mortality

From: Advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods in deciding whether and when to stop a clinical trial: an example of a neonatal cooling trial

 

RR posterior median (95 % credible interval)

Evidence of any benefit

Pr(RR < 1.0)

Futility monitoring

Pr(RR < 0.90)

Neutral

Enthusiastic

Neutral

Enthusiastic

Neutral

Enthusiastic

32.0 °C for 72 h

1.23 (0.76–1.92)

1.19 (0.74–1.87)

20 %

25 %

10 %

13 %

33.5 °C for 120 h

1.31 (0.82–2.09)

1.27 (0.80–2.03)

13 %

16 %

6 %

8 %

32.0 °C for 120 h

1.60 (0.82–2.97)

1.50 (0.79–2.83)

8 %

11 %

4 %

6 %

  1. The three experimental hypothermia groups are compared with standard cooling (33.5 °C for 72 h) under a neutral and enthusiastic prior. RR values less than 1.0 favor experimental groups
  2. PR probability, RR relative risk
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ISSN: 1745-6215