Strategy | Treat no patients, regardless of model | Treat all patients, regardless of model | Treat according to prediction model | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
 |  |  | Prediction model recommends treatment | Prediction model recommends no treatment | Prediction model total |
Number of patients | 1000 | 1000 | 650 | 350 | 1000 |
Number of events | 400 (40%) | 350 (35%) | 253 (39%) | 102 (29%) | 355 (35.5%) |
Decrease in event rate | Â | 5% | Â | Â | 4.5% |
Number of treatments | Â | 1000 (100%) | Â | Â | 650 (65%) |
Net benefit |  | 5% – 100% × 0.05 = 0 |  |  | 4.5% – 65% × 0.05 = 0.0125 |