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Table 1 Calculation of net benefit in a hypothetical data set for a T of 5%.

From: Method for evaluating prediction models that apply the results of randomized trials to individual patients

Strategy Treat no patients, regardless of model Treat all patients, regardless of model Treat according to prediction model
    Prediction model recommends treatment Prediction model recommends no treatment Prediction model total
Number of patients 1000 1000 650 350 1000
Number of events 400 (40%) 350 (35%) 253 (39%) 102 (29%) 355 (35.5%)
Decrease in event rate   5%    4.5%
Number of treatments   1000 (100%)    650 (65%)
Net benefit   5% – 100% × 0.05 = 0    4.5% – 65% × 0.05 = 0.0125
  1. The results in the first and second columns give the results from the treatment and control groups. The third column shows that there were 650 patients in the treatment group for whom the prediction model estimated a benefit of 5% or more and that 253 of these died. The fourth column shows that there were 350 patients in the control group of the randomized trial with predicted benefit of less than 5%, of whom 102 died. The net benefit is the decrease in event rate minus the treatment rate × T.