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Table 1 Calculation of net benefit in a hypothetical data set for a T of 5%.

From: Method for evaluating prediction models that apply the results of randomized trials to individual patients

Strategy

Treat no patients, regardless of model

Treat all patients, regardless of model

Treat according to prediction model

   

Prediction model recommends treatment

Prediction model recommends no treatment

Prediction model total

Number of patients

1000

1000

650

350

1000

Number of events

400 (40%)

350 (35%)

253 (39%)

102 (29%)

355 (35.5%)

Decrease in event rate

 

5%

  

4.5%

Number of treatments

 

1000 (100%)

  

650 (65%)

Net benefit

 

5% – 100% × 0.05 = 0

  

4.5% – 65% × 0.05 = 0.0125

  1. The results in the first and second columns give the results from the treatment and control groups. The third column shows that there were 650 patients in the treatment group for whom the prediction model estimated a benefit of 5% or more and that 253 of these died. The fourth column shows that there were 350 patients in the control group of the randomized trial with predicted benefit of less than 5%, of whom 102 died. The net benefit is the decrease in event rate minus the treatment rate × T.