Table 2 Parameter values assumed for the model of the impact of the intervention for central and optimistic target scenarios, and projected impact on HIV incidence in Arms A and B compared with Arm C, assuming intervention roll-out over a 6-month time period
Parameter | Central target | Optimistic target | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual coverage of test and treat campaign | 70% | 75% | |||
Treatment failure & drop-out rate, per year | 10% | 10% | |||
Effectiveness of ART in blocking transmission | 90% | 95% | |||
Take up of male circumcision when offered | 50% | 50% | |||
Arm A | Arm B | Arm A | Arm B | ||
Zambia | Impact on cumulative incidence (3 years) | 61% | 25% | 63% | 27% |
Impact on cumulative incidence (first 2 years) | 58% | 24% | 61% | 25% | |
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 1 | 51% | 20% | 54% | 21% | |
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 2 | 65% | 27% | 67% | 28% | |
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 3 | 67% | 29% | 68% | 30% | |
South Africa | Impact on cumulative incidence (3 years) | 62% | 26% | 64% | 27% |
Impact on cumulative incidence (first 2 years) | 59% | 25% | 61% | 26% | |
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 1 | 52% | 22% | 55% | 23% | |
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 2 | 65% | 28% | 67% | 29% | |
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 3 | 68% | 29% | 69% | 30% | |