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Table 2 Parameter values assumed for the model of the impact of the intervention for central and optimistic target scenarios, and projected impact on HIV incidence in Arms A and B compared with Arm C, assuming intervention roll-out over a 6-month time period

From: HPTN 071 (PopART): Rationale and design of a cluster-randomised trial of the population impact of an HIV combination prevention intervention including universal testing and treatment – a study protocol for a cluster randomised trial

Parameter Central target Optimistic target
Annual coverage of test and treat campaign 70% 75%
Treatment failure & drop-out rate, per year 10% 10%
Effectiveness of ART in blocking transmission 90% 95%
Take up of male circumcision when offered 50% 50%
  Arm A Arm B Arm A Arm B
Zambia Impact on cumulative incidence (3 years) 61% 25% 63% 27%
Impact on cumulative incidence (first 2 years) 58% 24% 61% 25%
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 1 51% 20% 54% 21%
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 2 65% 27% 67% 28%
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 3 67% 29% 68% 30%
South Africa Impact on cumulative incidence (3 years) 62% 26% 64% 27%
  Impact on cumulative incidence (first 2 years) 59% 25% 61% 26%
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 1 52% 22% 55% 23%
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 2 65% 28% 67% 29%
Impact on HIV incidence during Year 3 68% 29% 69% 30%