Table 3 Sensitivity to prior distribution for between-trial variance in prediction interval for treatment effect for ICH
From: Meta-analysis of randomized phase II trials to inform subsequent phase III decisions
Prior distribution | OR | 95% prediction interval OR | (95% CrI) | Probability OR in new trial <1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1: τ ~ Uniform(0,2) | 0.470 | 0.032 - 5.751 | 0.915 (0.065 - 1.920) | 0.788 |
2: 1/τ2 ~ Gamma(0.1, 0.1) | 0.465 | 0.021 - 7.938 | 0.825 (0.244 - 3.146) | 0.787 |
3: Log(τ2) ~ Uniform(-10,1.386) | 0.499 | 0.094 - 2.097 | 0.139 (0.008 - 1.654) | 0.907 |
4: τ2 ~ Uniform(0.001,4) | 0.449 | 0.020 - 8.652 | 1.257 (0.293 - 1.959) | 0.741 |
5: 1/ τ2 ~ Pareto(1,0.25) | 0.447 | 0.020 - 8.496 | 1.260 (0.293 - 1.960) | 0.742 |
6: τ ~ Normal(0,1)I[0,] | 0.485 | 0.049 - 3.793 | 0.657 (0.037 - 1.911) | 0.824 |