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Table 3 Sensitivity to prior distribution for between-trial variance in prediction interval for treatment effect for ICH

From: Meta-analysis of randomized phase II trials to inform subsequent phase III decisions

Prior distribution OR 95% prediction interval OR τ ^ (95% CrI) Probability OR in new trial <1
1: τ ~ Uniform(0,2) 0.470 0.032 - 5.751 0.915 (0.065 - 1.920) 0.788
2: 1/τ2 ~ Gamma(0.1, 0.1) 0.465 0.021 - 7.938 0.825 (0.244 - 3.146) 0.787
3: Log(τ2) ~ Uniform(-10,1.386) 0.499 0.094 - 2.097 0.139 (0.008 - 1.654) 0.907
4: τ2 ~ Uniform(0.001,4) 0.449 0.020 - 8.652 1.257 (0.293 - 1.959) 0.741
5: 1/ τ2 ~ Pareto(1,0.25) 0.447 0.020 - 8.496 1.260 (0.293 - 1.960) 0.742
6: τ ~ Normal(0,1)I[0,] 0.485 0.049 - 3.793 0.657 (0.037 - 1.911) 0.824
  1. ICH intracranial hemorrhage; OR odds ratio; CrI credible interval.