Figure 4

Probability that the upper bound of the OR's 95% credible interval may be less than 1 in a new trial for ICH. Fixed variance (option 2) indicates the variance of $Y_{i_{\mathit{new}}}$ is assumed to be a fixed value which is approximated by assuming a baseline risk of 0.01 in the control group, a particular sample size, and a treatment effect of 0.485 (summary OR estimate from model 2). Sampled variance (option 1) indicates the variance of $Y_{i_{\mathit{new}}}$ is calculated for each sample of the estimation process, assuming a baseline risk of 0.01 in the control group, a particular sample size, and using the sampled (${\theta }_{i_{\mathit{new}}})$ (Equation 6).