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Figure 3 | Trials

Figure 3

From: Accumulating Evidence and Research Organization (AERO) model: a new tool for representing, analyzing, and planning a translational research program

Figure 3

Planning future studies. The graph shows twelve completed experiments across six years along with two contemplated future studies, a fourth phase 2 trial (δ 4) and a second phase 3 trial (ϵ 2). A phase 3 trial (ϵ 1) was initiated following the sole positive phase 2 study (δ 2). The result of this phase 3 trial was negative, discordant with the earlier phase 2 result. Now researchers must decide which study (or studies) to do next: Trust that the accumulated evidence is still sufficient to motivate another phase 3 or return to phase 2 in search of greater consistency and a potential explanation for the discordance between δ 2 and ϵ 1.

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